El Nio and Rising Imports Challenge India's Food Security in 2026

The India Meteorological Department reported that June 2026 recorded 39.8% below-normal rainfall, with a national average of 99.5 mm — the fifth lowest since 1905. Although monsoon progress improved after June 30, with 95% of India’s area now under monsoon influence and seasonal rainfall deficit reduced to 24.1% by July 5, kharif crop sowing remained 22.7% lower than last year. Sowing gaps were especially high for oilseeds (53.3%), pulses (30.5%), and cotton (34.6%). The El Nio phenomenon has entered a moderate phase and is projected to intensify into a strong event by late monsoon season, potentially turning very strong during October–January 2027. This could disrupt both kharif and rabi crop cycles, including wheat, mustard, chana, and potato, due to reduced rainfall and higher temperatures.

The 2023–24 strong El Nio had caused annual food inflation to average over 8.5% between July 2023 and December 2024. With similar conditions expected in 2026–27, India may face renewed pressure on food prices. In response, India imported a record 16.9 million tonnes of vegetable oils and 7.3 million tonnes of pulses in 2025–26. El Nio has now surpassed Iran as the top external risk factor for India’s economic stability, increasing dependency on food imports.

To mitigate risks, the government must maintain open import channels while ensuring minimum support prices (MSPs) for pulses, oilseeds, millets, and cotton. MSPs should cover the gap between market rates and guaranteed prices to encourage farmers to shift from water-intensive crops like rice, wheat, and sugarcane. The success of the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY) and the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA) will also be tested in 2026–27, as effective on-ground implementation is critical to stabilizing rural incomes and food supply chains.