El Nino Turns Active in 2026: Why a Weak Monsoon Could Hit Farms and Power

India's weather office has confirmed that an El Nino is now active over the equatorial Pacific Ocean and is likely to grow stronger during the June-to-September southwest monsoon season. El Nino is a climate pattern in which the surface waters of the central and eastern Pacific become warmer than normal. This happens when the trade winds (the steady east-to-west winds near the equator) weaken, allowing warm water that usually piles up near the western Pacific to spread eastward. The warming shifts wind and air-pressure patterns and, in turn, changes weather across the world.

For India, El Nino years often mean a weaker monsoon. The southwest monsoon delivers about three-quarters of the country's yearly rainfall, so a poor monsoon affects drinking water, farming and power. Officials have already trimmed the rainfall forecast to about 90 percent of the 50-year average, which counts as a below-normal monsoon. In parts of the country, such as Telangana, the monsoon arrived late and weak after a harsh summer, with no strong rain-bearing systems building over the Bay of Bengal or the Arabian Sea. Scientists note the season could still improve if other patterns, like a positive Indian Ocean Dipole or the wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation, kick in.

The economic worry is twofold: agriculture and electricity. Most Indian farming still depends on monsoon rain, so a deficit can lower crop output, push up food prices and squeeze rural incomes. On the power side, hydropower (electricity made by water turning turbines at dams) is at risk. Although hydropower is only about a tenth of India's total power capacity, it is valuable because it can be switched on and off quickly to keep the grid stable. Experts expect hydropower generation this year to fall roughly 10 percent, because reservoirs are already low and weaker water flow turns turbines with less force. India's 166 major reservoirs are holding less water than a year ago, and large projects such as Koyna and Tehri are well below their usual levels.

This matters more because India's power demand has hit a record high of about 270.8 gigawatts and is expected to climb further during the summer months. A drop in hydropower means coal-fired thermal plants may have to run harder to cover the gap. Projects fed by Himalayan snow and glaciers, however, may not suffer as much, since they rely on melting ice rather than rain. The last strong El Nino, in 2015-16, had cut hydropower output by about 12 percent, so policymakers are watching closely.

For exam aspirants, this story ties together the ENSO cycle (El Nino, La Nina and the neutral phase), the monsoon mechanism, reservoir and hydropower basics, and the link between climate and the economy - all high-value topics for geography, economy and environment sections.