India GDP Likely Grew Around 7.3% in Q4 FY26, Economists Project

A group of economists expects India's economy to have expanded by roughly 7.3% year-on-year during the January-March quarter of 2025-26 (Q4 FY26). This would mark a slight slowdown from the 7.8% growth recorded in the previous quarter, yet it still points to a steady pace of expansion supported by firm domestic demand, sustained government spending and a recovery in farm activity. It is important to note that this figure is a forecast, not an official number.

The individual estimates from the surveyed economists fall in a band of 6.9% to 7.5%. If the average projection holds, full-year growth for FY26 would settle near 7.6%, broadly in line with the government's second advance estimate. The official quarterly and annual GDP figures are scheduled for release on 5 June 2026, after which the projection can be compared with actual data.

Analysts say the quarter held up reasonably well despite rising global uncertainty and higher crude oil prices linked to tensions in West Asia towards the close of the period. On the supply side, the picture appears mixed: industry and services are believed to have grown more slowly than in the December quarter, while a modest pick-up in agriculture provided some cushion. Slower manufacturing volumes, weaker exports and early signs of margin pressure are seen weighing on industrial gross value added (GVA).

Looking ahead, several economists expect growth to ease in FY27 as external risks linger. Higher crude oil prices, their knock-on effect on inflation and trade, and uncertainty around the south-west monsoon are flagged as the main concerns. Under a baseline view, growth could moderate to around 6.7% in FY27, slipping closer to 6% if oil stays elevated for a sustained period.

For aspirants, this item is a reminder of how GDP is measured and reported in India. GVA is the value added across sectors, and GDP is derived from it after adjusting for taxes and subsidies. Advance estimates are released before final data, and quarterly numbers are published by the National Statistical Office. Candidates should remember that a poll of economists is a projection that helps gauge market expectations, while the binding figure is the one officially released by the government.