US-Iran Conflict in West Asia: On-Again, Off-Again Strikes, the Strait of Hormuz, and What It Means for India

A roughly three-month-old conflict in West Asia, which began on 28 February 2026 when the United States and Israel jointly launched attacks on Iran, moved into an uncertain phase in mid-June 2026. After two nights of back-and-forth strikes, the US President said on 11 June that he had called off further military action, claiming that Iranian leadership had approved the outline of a settlement. Iran's foreign ministry, however, said no final decision had been reached, and the two sides have repeatedly given conflicting accounts of where talks stand. A ceasefire that began in April had remained fragile.

The original war aims announced by the US and Israel included rolling back Iran's nuclear programme, weakening its missile capability, and ending its support for armed groups in the region. Iranian officials say those aims were not met and that Tehran's positions have hardened. A central pressure point is the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow sea passage through which a very large share of the world's oil and gas is shipped. During the fighting Iran announced a closure of the strait to oil tankers and commercial ships, severely disrupting traffic. Reopening the strait within 30 days, lifting a US naval blockade of Iranian ports, and a 60-day window to negotiate the nuclear file are reported to be among the terms under discussion. Iran has said it will not give up control over how the strait is managed, while the US says no frozen Iranian funds (reported at about $24 billion) will be released until Iran meets its commitments.

Regional players have been active as mediators. Qatar, Egypt and others have welcomed the pause in fighting, and the framework being discussed has been referred to as the "Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding". Pakistan's Prime Minister said an agreed text of a peace deal had been reached and that Islamabad was working with both sides on next steps. Israel, for its part, has stressed that it will keep up pressure to ensure Iran does not acquire nuclear weapons. As of 12 June 2026, no signed agreement had been confirmed; one Iranian news agency noted that a deal had been described as "imminent" many times over the previous two months without being finalised.

The conflict has touched India directly. India said that three merchant ships carrying Indian crew members were attacked off the coast of Oman over four days; three Indian seafarers were killed. New Delhi lodged a strong protest, summoned the US Charge d'Affaires, and called for the attacks to stop, stressing the safety of its large seafaring community. Separately, the US President alleged that Iran had attempted a drone strike on Indian ships leaving the Strait of Hormuz and called it unacceptable, while Iran's foreign ministry condemned the strikes on the Indian-crewed vessels and offered condolences. The episode underlines India's exposure: a big share of India's crude oil and gas imports passes through Hormuz, and millions of Indians work as merchant sailors and in the Gulf diaspora.

For India, the economic stakes are large. Higher crude prices feed directly into India's import bill and inflation, since India imports the bulk of its oil. When the US announced an end to the war, global oil prices fell to two-month lows and Indian stock indices rallied sharply on 12 June, with the Sensex up over 1,600 points, showing how closely Indian markets track Hormuz tensions. India has also been discussing a possible French-led multinational maritime-security effort to protect freedom of navigation through the strait, talks linked to a G7 meeting.