World Bank Raises India's FY27 Growth Forecast to 6.6%

The World Bank has raised its growth forecast for India's economy in FY27 to 6.6%, a small upward revision of 0.1 percentage point from the 6.5% it had estimated in January 2026. The change came in the World Bank's June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report. What makes the upgrade notable is its timing: the World Bank cut its forecasts for many other large economies at the same time, warning that global growth could slow to its weakest pace since the pandemic.

According to the report, India's economy is expected to grow 6.6% in FY27, easing from an estimated 7.7% in FY26, before picking up to 7.2% in FY28. While 6.6% is slower than FY26, it stands out because India is among the very few large economies to receive an upgrade. The World Bank trimmed projections for China, Thailand, Turkey, Brazil and parts of West Asia. China is projected to grow 4.2% in 2026 and Thailand just 1.7%.

The upgrade reflects a key feature of India's economy: its growth is driven more by domestic demand, such as household spending and government investment, than by exports. This makes India less exposed to ups and downs in global trade. By contrast, export-dependent economies in Asia are more sensitive to weak global demand. India's strong recent record helped, with the economy expanding 7.8% in the March quarter of FY26 and full-year FY26 growth placed at 7.7%.

Importantly, the World Bank built a tough external environment into its numbers. It assumed Brent crude would average $94 per barrel in 2026, a level that usually hurts oil-importing countries like India. Even with that assumption, the forecast was nudged higher, suggesting the World Bank sees domestic consumption, government capital spending and services activity as strong enough to offset part of the drag from costly energy.

The World Bank flagged oil and commodity prices as the main risk to the outlook. A further supply shock could raise inflation, widen the current account deficit and strain public finances. The broader message is less about the exact growth number and more about India's relative strength in a slowing world, which gives policymakers some room to push reforms, manufacturing and job creation.